The Trump administration’s trade agenda hit a wall this week when a federal court blocked a broad set of tariffs central to the White House’s “America First” economic policy. However, despite the legal blow, the president is already weighing his next move, which could reimpose duties through different legal channels.
While markets welcomed the initial court ruling with a sigh of relief, the sense of uncertainty still lingers. Trade experts and investors alike are bracing for a renewed push from the administration, one that could escalate tensions again before the dust has even settled.
Trump’s Two-Track Strategy
Legal analysts and trade insiders are closely watching two specific tools the president may use next. First, there’s the “balance-of-payments” authority under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This provision allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% almost immediately, with a built-in limit of 150 days unless Congress extends it. It’s a fast-track option meant more as a temporary lever than a long-term fix, but it buys time.
Second, the administration could lean on more established, slower-moving tools: Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. Section 232 allows tariffs on the grounds of national security, used previously for steel and aluminum, while Section 301 covers unfair trade practices and was the legal basis for the first wave of tariffs on Chinese goods in Trump’s first term.
Together, these two paths offer the administration both immediacy and longevity. Analysts say Trump may pursue both in tandem, reimposing near-term duties under the balance-of-payments authority while launching formal investigations to lay the groundwork for sector-specific tariffs later this year.
Sector Targets and Strategic Messaging
Early signs suggest the president is narrowing in on targeted industries rather than sweeping, across-the-board tariffs. In public comments this week, Trump emphasized a focus on “strategic production,” naming semiconductors and defense manufacturing as national priorities. "We’re not looking to make sneakers and t-shirts," he said, hinting that future tariff action may concentrate on sectors seen as vital to U.S. sovereignty and competitiveness.
That posture could soften the economic blow while still projecting strength, especially to his base. However, it also raises the stakes for global supply chains, many of which depend on predictable U.S. policy.
Legal Maneuvering and Political Timing
The White House has already filed an appeal to the U.S. Court of International Trade’s ruling and is expected to petition the Supreme Court if needed. However, the legal process could continue for months, and Trump’s team appears unwilling to wait. New investigations are reportedly underway into goods like pharmaceuticals and microchips, a sign the administration is preparing backup plans in case the court’s decision stands.
Rapid deployment of temporary tariffs could help the president maintain his hardline image, while slower-moving Section 301 or 232 actions could be teed up for later in the year, potentially influencing market behavior.
Looking Ahead
The court ruling may have slowed Trump’s trade momentum, but it hasn’t derailed it. With multiple legal tools at his disposal, the president appears determined to find another way to press forward. Investors should expect more headlines—and likely more market volatility—as the administration recalibrates.
The big question now is whether a two-track tariff policy, combining speed with staying power, can survive legal scrutiny and global backlash. For businesses and markets already operating in a high-uncertainty environment, it’s one more variable to price in.
